Welcome to "High Lights from the Heartland". A little humor plus news and observations on the LED / Solid State Lighting markets for your enjoyment. Feel free to share this with your friends!
A little humor:
An optometrist was instructing a new employee on how to charge a customer. “As you are fitting their glasses, if they ask how much they will cost, you say ‘$150.’ “If their eyes don’t flutter, say, ‘For the frames, the lenses will be $100.’ “If their eyes still don’t flutter, you add, ‘Each.’”
News & observations on the LED / Solid State Lighting markets:
Opinion:
Doubt the conventional wisdom unless you can verify it with reason and experiment. - Steve Albini
Conventional wisdom of the ages: The world is flat, the earth is the center of the universe and no one will buy $70 LED light bulbs…
I was on a flight recently and the guy seating next to me was one of those very talkative fellows. Turns out he was ex military and now works as a weapons consultant but more importantly for me, he was also an early adaptor of LED lighting. He had recently purchased several high end LED light bulbs at a big box DIY retailer. How did he know about LED lighting? Turns out that his weapons background also included military flashlights and those high end units had already been converted to LEDs. His positive experience with LEDs in his work gave him the confidence to buy several of the new $70 LED retro-fit lamps for his kitchen. While he liked them overall, his wife was somewhat disappointment in the limited beam angle and the lack of a uniform fall off from the center of the beam to the outer edges, which is what she had come to expect from standard halogen PAR lamps. Would he buy them again? Yes, but only for specific “difficult to re-lamp” fixtures.
This got me to thinking about the other local / personal inputs I was getting on LED lighting and lamps… My local Wal-Mart once again completely sold out of LED Christmas lights before Christmas. My next door neighbor (he knows what I do for a living and he is still willing to talk to me) said that he would most likely buy a $50 LED retrofit lamp for at least one “difficult to relamp” fixture in his home (he is semi-retired and works part time at a big box DIY retailer). Sharp announced at CES that they have already produced over 1 million A19 LED lamps for the Japanese market at ~ 4,000 yen (~$45) each since this product launched in June 2009.
Is there pent up demand for LED retrofit lamps and fixtures at the consumer level? I believe that all of the signs are there… but the consumer’s first real LED lighting “experience” needs to build their confidence in using LED Lighting products. This confidence in the product and its performance will determine if they will buy more or hold off indefinitely, should it prove to be significantly lacking. The US-DOE Energy Star for SSL programs will help build this confidence but these are not mandated programs and anyone can still make anything with any type of LEDs and try to sell it into the US market. Hopefully we will see a shift from a market that currently has a track record of 97% poor / junk LED lighting products towards one that offers high quality products that utilize the US-DOE Energy Star performance specifications as their goal. Stay tuned, 2010 will be a significant year for LED Lamps.
Speaking of the US-DOE, they announced $37 million in funding for several OLED, LED and phosphor programs this month as well (http://www.energy.gov/news2009/documents2009/SSL_Selections_011510.pdf). The interesting thing here is that the winners of these awards were already in the process of developing these products or process innovations. Hopefully this money will accelerate these efforts and allow us to realize the next generation of SSL solutions faster than what the normal market development cycle would allow.
News:
A Boost for LED Lighting Development - The government is awarding $37 million for more research into LED lighting development. As part of the government’s aggressive push for more energy efficient lighting options, the Department of Energy announced Friday it had awarded more than $37 million in stimulus funds for research and development projects that will help advance the market for products that use light-emitting diodes, or LEDs. A significant portion of the 17 projects selected to receive money were proposed by well-known lighting companies, including General Electric, Osram Sylvania, Philips and Cree. The awardees have promised to pony up an additional $28.5 million in private-industry matching funds for the projects, and to spend the money in the United States. According to the department, the focus on manufacturing is part of a new initiative to accelerate adoption of LEDs by improving quality and cost – while also encouraging production in the United States. A considerable amount of LED manufacturing occurs in Asia, according to the department’s solid-state lighting research and development plan. The plan states that developing advanced automation methods could improve product consistency, reduce labor content and potentially make domestic production “a more attractive option than it is today.” http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/18/a-boost-for-led-lighting-development/
Sharp To Enter LED Lighting Market - Sharp said it will enter the LED lighting market for the first time with energy efficient products targeting high end uses. Despite being a newcomer to the market, Sharp was able to take 60 percent share of the LED lighting market in Japan, where companies including Panasonic, Toshiba and Hitachi have been working on lighting for years, he said. "Our plan is to launch an LED lighting business to supply the United States and Europe by the end of this year," said Sharp Electronics' global president and COO Mikio Katayama. He acknowledged that breaking into the U.S. lighting market presents a significant challenge, but Sharp's LED technologies have very high performance levels. The consumer electronics and solar cell manufacturer’s move is an obvious complement to its LCD television business, where LED backlit LCD sets are a growing share of the market. Large production volumes should enable Sharp to drive down manufacturing costs in both product lines overtime. The company declined to release its expected pricing or to provide details about the products and bulbs it hopes to sell. It anticipates launching the products in March, with its first bulbs boasting 80 percent greater energy efficient than compact fluorescents. They will target the commercial market. Overtime, Sharp expects to address indoor and outdoor uses in both commercial and residential applications. It even plans solar powered LED lights. http://techpulse360.com/2010/01/07/sharp-to-enter-led-lighting-market/ and http://www.twice.com/article/443349-Sharp_s_Katayama_Looks_To_Reclaim_Lost_Market_Share.php
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Sunday, January 3, 2010
"High Lights from the Heartland" 1-3-10
Welcome to "High Lights from the Heartland". A little humor plus news and observations on the LED / Solid State Lighting markets for your enjoyment. Feel free to share this with your friends!
A little humor:
A doctor got a phone call from one of his colleagues. “We need a fourth for poker,” the voice on the phone said. “I’ll be right over,” replied the doctor. As he was putting on his overcoat, his wife asked, “Is it serious?” “Oh yes, quite serious,” he said gravely. “They’ve had to call in three other doctors as well.”
News & observations on the LED / Solid State Lighting markets:
Opinion: Another year has come to a close and we all have many things to be thankful for, family, friends, our jobs (if you are working) or the prospect that the job market will be improving in 2010 (if you are not yet working)… see the story at the end of the newsletter for some hopeful signs!
It is interesting that human beings divide up our lives into time based segments. We mark the progression of our lives in the passing of years (hopefully we mark the meaning of our lives by the progress we make towards becoming good, decent, caring human beings). We “keep time” to help co-ordinate our activities with others and we use the week, month and quarter to work towards specific short term goals but our longer term goals usually do not fit easily into 12 month segments. LED Lighting is not a 12 month goal, it is an effort that will be measured in decades. Yes, there will be short term goals and niche markets that will engage on a Total Cost of Ownership basis first. But these first niche users are like gems that have to be mined out of the entire lighting market, a market that is measured in the tens of billions of dollars in the USA alone. This is not a job for a just a handful of people, it is an effort for an entire industry. The US-DOE has taken the very long term view on energy efficient lighting, both for CFL and LED and they are to be commended on their efforts. If you have not yet been involved in a US-DOE LED Lighting event or workshop, I encourage you to plan to attend one or two in 2010. Even if they cannot help you meet your short term business goals, their work will impact your long term success and direction within this market.
Finally, OLED lighting is an interesting technology that holds great promise but still has inherent problems that will take more time and much more money to resolve (where are all of the great OLED TVs?) However, even if OLED lighting was possible today, no one is going to replace a 2x4 FL troffer with an $8,000.00 OLED light panel in the average office environment. There is no TCO model (other than the ultra “cool” factor) for OLEDs that a CFO would approve. OLED lighting would also need to fit into the existing form factures in place today if it wants to be a viable lighting solution. OLED wallpaper would be great for displays, but there is a reason why our light sources are nearly all over head! The lighting environments today utilize florescent tubes, incandescent lamps and the existing ballasts and fixtures. Until you can make 60W light bulbs that operate on 120VAC and fit into existing fixtures with OLEDs, they will remain an interesting and expensive lighting curiosity.
News:
Revolutionary 'light emitting wallpaper' could soon replace light bulbs - A company developing ultra-efficient organic LED (OLED) lighting technology has been awarded a £454k grant by the Carbon Trust. The OLED materials, being pioneered by LOMOX, have a wide variety of potential applications and when coated onto a film could be used to cover walls creating a light-emitting wallpaper which replaces the need for traditional light bulbs. As well as being flexible, OLED film will require a very low operating voltage (between 3 to 5 volts) so it can be powered by solar panels and batteries making it ideal for applications where mains power is not available such as roadside traffic warning signs. The Welsh company aims to have the first lighting products using its technology available in 2012 and also plans to use the same technology to create more energy efficient television screens. Ken Lacey, Chief Executive of LOMOX, said: "LOMOX is an OLED Innovation and Development Company. OLEDs are new light emitting devices for low energy lighting and flat panel display applications. LOMOX OLEDs are more efficient, cost effective to produce and do not suffer from the oxidation defect of other polymer OLEDs, providing substantially longer lifetimes. Operating lifetime has traditionally been a problem with OLED technology, but LOMOX has found a way to achieve significantly longer lifetimes than fluorescent lamps. The technology will also be more efficient (producing 150 lumens/watt) as it only emits light along one axis. OLEDs can produce a more natural looking light than other forms of lighting. The Carbon Trust is currently on the lookout for other technologies with significant carbon saving potential to receive up to £500k of grant funding through its Applied Research scheme. It has recently launched an open call for applications which will close on 18th February 2010. Applications can be made at www.carbontrust.co.uk/appliedresearch. The Carbon Trust's Applied Research grant scheme has supported 164 projects from around 1900 applications and committed a total of £23m towards research worth around £55m. Approximately 65% of completed projects have, or are in the process of generating new patents, making commercial sales or receiving further investment into the development of the technology. http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/national-news/121005-revolutionary-light-emitting-wallpaper-could-soon-replace-light-bulbs.html
Uptick in Executive Jobs Seen for 2010 - Recruiters are bullish on the outlook for executive-level job hunters in 2010. Slightly more than half of 153 recruiters surveyed earlier this month said they expect a 19% rise in executive-search assignments during the first half of 2010, reports ExecuNet, a networking organization for recruiters and executives. That's the largest percentage increase since early 2008. Some 54% of recruiters surveyed in December said they are confident the executive employment market will improve in the next six months. "The economy is recovering and companies that deferred hiring and froze work forces are now searching for the talent they need to grow," says Mark Anderson, president and chief economist for ExecuNet based in Norwalk, Conn. Industries where recruiting activity is expected to be strongest in 2010 include health care, clean energy, pharmaceuticals and high technology, he adds. Predictions made by ExecuNet survey participants have proved accurate in the past. For example, in the second half of 2003, recruiter confidence increased by more than 40% and "the economy started to recover about six months later," says Mr. Anderson. "We're seeing that same change now." John Wood, vice chairman of Heidrick & Struggles International Inc., says the latest findings mirror activity occurring at the Chicago-based search firm. "We are definitely seeing a resurgence in board and CEO recruitment and would expect that to continue in 2010," he says. One reason for the turnaround, says Mr. Wood, is that many executives who had put off retirement are finally getting ready to step down. "As equity markets return and stocks trade up, people are now in a position to execute their retirement plans," he says. Similarly, board directors are feeling less pressured to stick around. "They didn't want to make changes in the boardroom during a period of turmoil or difficulty," he says. "There's really the abatement of the siege mentality now. Things are starting to sort themselves out a bit, so people are saying, 'I can step off.'" Another possible indicator the executive job market is improving: There are roughly 2,500 executive-level jobs listed on ExecuNet's Web site today, 20% more than in July, according to Mr. Anderson. Meanwhile, a newly released CareerBuilder.com survey of more than 2,700 hiring managers and human-resources professionals suggests recruiting activity for positions lower down the corporate ladder also is increasing. The survey's findings indicate that 20% of employers plan to add full-time employees in 2010, up from 14% in 2009. Of the respondents, 61% don't plan to change staff levels and just 9% expect to trim their work forces, down from 16% last year. Industries where hiring is expected to increase the most in 2010, according to CareerBuilder, are information technology, manufacturing, financial services, professional and business services and sales. One-third of respondents said they plan to add technology staff and 28% indicated they intend to beef up hiring in customer service. Other job functions where employers expect to add staff include sales, research and development, finance and marketing, CareerBuilder reports. In October, consulting firm Watson Wyatt surveyed human-resources executives at 201 U.S. companies, 96% of whom said they'd extended job offers to candidates in the prior three months; 93% said they planned to make additional offers over the next three months. Further, 49% said they planned to reverse hiring freezes by April 2010. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703510304574626520608903030.html?mod=rss_careers
A little humor:
A doctor got a phone call from one of his colleagues. “We need a fourth for poker,” the voice on the phone said. “I’ll be right over,” replied the doctor. As he was putting on his overcoat, his wife asked, “Is it serious?” “Oh yes, quite serious,” he said gravely. “They’ve had to call in three other doctors as well.”
News & observations on the LED / Solid State Lighting markets:
Opinion: Another year has come to a close and we all have many things to be thankful for, family, friends, our jobs (if you are working) or the prospect that the job market will be improving in 2010 (if you are not yet working)… see the story at the end of the newsletter for some hopeful signs!
It is interesting that human beings divide up our lives into time based segments. We mark the progression of our lives in the passing of years (hopefully we mark the meaning of our lives by the progress we make towards becoming good, decent, caring human beings). We “keep time” to help co-ordinate our activities with others and we use the week, month and quarter to work towards specific short term goals but our longer term goals usually do not fit easily into 12 month segments. LED Lighting is not a 12 month goal, it is an effort that will be measured in decades. Yes, there will be short term goals and niche markets that will engage on a Total Cost of Ownership basis first. But these first niche users are like gems that have to be mined out of the entire lighting market, a market that is measured in the tens of billions of dollars in the USA alone. This is not a job for a just a handful of people, it is an effort for an entire industry. The US-DOE has taken the very long term view on energy efficient lighting, both for CFL and LED and they are to be commended on their efforts. If you have not yet been involved in a US-DOE LED Lighting event or workshop, I encourage you to plan to attend one or two in 2010. Even if they cannot help you meet your short term business goals, their work will impact your long term success and direction within this market.
Finally, OLED lighting is an interesting technology that holds great promise but still has inherent problems that will take more time and much more money to resolve (where are all of the great OLED TVs?) However, even if OLED lighting was possible today, no one is going to replace a 2x4 FL troffer with an $8,000.00 OLED light panel in the average office environment. There is no TCO model (other than the ultra “cool” factor) for OLEDs that a CFO would approve. OLED lighting would also need to fit into the existing form factures in place today if it wants to be a viable lighting solution. OLED wallpaper would be great for displays, but there is a reason why our light sources are nearly all over head! The lighting environments today utilize florescent tubes, incandescent lamps and the existing ballasts and fixtures. Until you can make 60W light bulbs that operate on 120VAC and fit into existing fixtures with OLEDs, they will remain an interesting and expensive lighting curiosity.
News:
Revolutionary 'light emitting wallpaper' could soon replace light bulbs - A company developing ultra-efficient organic LED (OLED) lighting technology has been awarded a £454k grant by the Carbon Trust. The OLED materials, being pioneered by LOMOX, have a wide variety of potential applications and when coated onto a film could be used to cover walls creating a light-emitting wallpaper which replaces the need for traditional light bulbs. As well as being flexible, OLED film will require a very low operating voltage (between 3 to 5 volts) so it can be powered by solar panels and batteries making it ideal for applications where mains power is not available such as roadside traffic warning signs. The Welsh company aims to have the first lighting products using its technology available in 2012 and also plans to use the same technology to create more energy efficient television screens. Ken Lacey, Chief Executive of LOMOX, said: "LOMOX is an OLED Innovation and Development Company. OLEDs are new light emitting devices for low energy lighting and flat panel display applications. LOMOX OLEDs are more efficient, cost effective to produce and do not suffer from the oxidation defect of other polymer OLEDs, providing substantially longer lifetimes. Operating lifetime has traditionally been a problem with OLED technology, but LOMOX has found a way to achieve significantly longer lifetimes than fluorescent lamps. The technology will also be more efficient (producing 150 lumens/watt) as it only emits light along one axis. OLEDs can produce a more natural looking light than other forms of lighting. The Carbon Trust is currently on the lookout for other technologies with significant carbon saving potential to receive up to £500k of grant funding through its Applied Research scheme. It has recently launched an open call for applications which will close on 18th February 2010. Applications can be made at www.carbontrust.co.uk/appliedresearch. The Carbon Trust's Applied Research grant scheme has supported 164 projects from around 1900 applications and committed a total of £23m towards research worth around £55m. Approximately 65% of completed projects have, or are in the process of generating new patents, making commercial sales or receiving further investment into the development of the technology. http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/national-news/121005-revolutionary-light-emitting-wallpaper-could-soon-replace-light-bulbs.html
Uptick in Executive Jobs Seen for 2010 - Recruiters are bullish on the outlook for executive-level job hunters in 2010. Slightly more than half of 153 recruiters surveyed earlier this month said they expect a 19% rise in executive-search assignments during the first half of 2010, reports ExecuNet, a networking organization for recruiters and executives. That's the largest percentage increase since early 2008. Some 54% of recruiters surveyed in December said they are confident the executive employment market will improve in the next six months. "The economy is recovering and companies that deferred hiring and froze work forces are now searching for the talent they need to grow," says Mark Anderson, president and chief economist for ExecuNet based in Norwalk, Conn. Industries where recruiting activity is expected to be strongest in 2010 include health care, clean energy, pharmaceuticals and high technology, he adds. Predictions made by ExecuNet survey participants have proved accurate in the past. For example, in the second half of 2003, recruiter confidence increased by more than 40% and "the economy started to recover about six months later," says Mr. Anderson. "We're seeing that same change now." John Wood, vice chairman of Heidrick & Struggles International Inc., says the latest findings mirror activity occurring at the Chicago-based search firm. "We are definitely seeing a resurgence in board and CEO recruitment and would expect that to continue in 2010," he says. One reason for the turnaround, says Mr. Wood, is that many executives who had put off retirement are finally getting ready to step down. "As equity markets return and stocks trade up, people are now in a position to execute their retirement plans," he says. Similarly, board directors are feeling less pressured to stick around. "They didn't want to make changes in the boardroom during a period of turmoil or difficulty," he says. "There's really the abatement of the siege mentality now. Things are starting to sort themselves out a bit, so people are saying, 'I can step off.'" Another possible indicator the executive job market is improving: There are roughly 2,500 executive-level jobs listed on ExecuNet's Web site today, 20% more than in July, according to Mr. Anderson. Meanwhile, a newly released CareerBuilder.com survey of more than 2,700 hiring managers and human-resources professionals suggests recruiting activity for positions lower down the corporate ladder also is increasing. The survey's findings indicate that 20% of employers plan to add full-time employees in 2010, up from 14% in 2009. Of the respondents, 61% don't plan to change staff levels and just 9% expect to trim their work forces, down from 16% last year. Industries where hiring is expected to increase the most in 2010, according to CareerBuilder, are information technology, manufacturing, financial services, professional and business services and sales. One-third of respondents said they plan to add technology staff and 28% indicated they intend to beef up hiring in customer service. Other job functions where employers expect to add staff include sales, research and development, finance and marketing, CareerBuilder reports. In October, consulting firm Watson Wyatt surveyed human-resources executives at 201 U.S. companies, 96% of whom said they'd extended job offers to candidates in the prior three months; 93% said they planned to make additional offers over the next three months. Further, 49% said they planned to reverse hiring freezes by April 2010. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703510304574626520608903030.html?mod=rss_careers
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